U.S. must modernize and scale cognitive warfare capabilities to achieve national security objectives

From IC Insider SOSi

By Stephen Iwicki, Senior Vice President for Intelligence at SOSi, a private defense and government services firm

Imagine attempting to win a high-stakes chess match when your opponent leverages machine intelligence to make quick, astute moves, while you’re painstakingly weighing options and assuming your actions are effective. This stark contrast perfectly illustrates the advantage U.S. adversaries hold in cognitive warfare. Our country’s efforts are hampered by disjointed campaigns, outdated methodologies, manual processes, and a critical lack of a common operating picture for information operations. They are no match for the automated tactics adversaries deploy using sophisticated algorithms to instantly detect, amplify, suppress, or redirect information flows in real-time. We are not currently equipped to keep pace with threats or capitalize on emerging opportunities, which necessitates an urgent recalibration toward a more integrated, forward-looking, data-driven, and technology-enabled approach.

The power play

Cognitive warfare, which seeks to alter an adversary’s decision-making and protect against foreign influence and manipulation, is a powerful tool in modern conflict. Nations like China and Russia weaponize it to sow disinformation and division within Western societies, leveraging advanced technology to produce content at scale, reach target audiences, and maximize impact. In the era of great power competition, information operations are a fundamental aspect of the U.S. military operations in peacetime and in war. They are employed to counter misinformation, understand enemy intentions, maintain favor with key allies, and deter hostile actions that threaten global stability, such as a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. Russia’s success in shaping perspectives on the Ukraine conflict, and Ukraine’s equally effective information campaigns that rallied global support, demonstrate the immense power of information operations.

Game evolved

The media landscape and information consumption habits have changed so profoundly and so quickly that what was practical and successful a decade, five years, or even one year ago may be obsolete today. People are shifting from traditional, passive forms of media, such as scheduled TV or daily newspapers, to on-demand, user-driven content that is more authentic and personalized. The shrinking attention span has driven the need for impactful messages in very brief, high-energy formats.

However, traditional media is far from obsolete, as what works for one demographic isn’t necessarily effective with another. A message that resonates with a younger, urban audience may not be received well by an older, rural demographic, and social media platforms with strong influence among Western populations may not have the same impact on a Chinese Communist Party leader who considers BBC News a trusted source. Consequently, information operations require a nuanced and targeted approach that leverages a mix of new and traditional channels and considers alternative and unconventional methods of reaching people. For instance, a subtle message on the menu of a popular local food vendor could prove surprisingly effective in engaging a specific community.

This entire process begins with a critical step: carefully listening to assess audience demographics, preferences, and behaviors, relying on data and local cultural knowledge rather than assumptions.

Know your competitor

In cognitive warfare, winning isn’t just about sending messages, but about influencing the logic that guides the target audience. A significant failure point in information operations is neglecting to grasp the subtleties of diverse population groups and comprehend what drives them. A basic sentiment analysis doesn’t provide sufficient insight into a cognitive environment; it just registers immediate emotional attitudes as positive, negative, or neutral. For instance, when a rival nation promotes stories about U.S. military mishaps, it’s easy to label them as negative coverage based on sentiment. Advanced narrative analysis, however, would uncover a far deeper strategy: the systematic reinforcement of perceptions that paint U.S. forces as a weak ally.

Adversaries adept at information operations don’t just aim to provoke temporary reactions; they persistently disseminate storylines to influence behaviors as a tactic to achieve strategic goals. While sentiment analysis indicates whether a target population is angry, narrative analysis reveals the underlying beliefs fueling that anger and what actions they’re likely to take next. The distinction between capturing fleeting emotions and tracking the factors that shape how people see the world and what drives their decisions represents a fundamental shift in how U.S. information operations must evolve so we can stay three moves ahead.

Tracking narratives is a part of the information operations cycle where artificial intelligence (AI) offers a transformative advantage. Autonomous narrative agents can detect and map intricate patterns across overwhelming and growing volumes of information streams, operating in real-time and spanning numerous languages and regions. Automating the discovery of narratives that are emerging, being amplified, or suppressed would arm U.S. forces with a granular understanding of how target audiences think to better assess which messages will align with their existing worldviews. Moreover, it would enable an accurate measurement of effectiveness based on actual shifts in belief, not just superficial metrics such as impressions or views.

Endgame assessment

The difficulty in collecting reliable and meaningful data to evaluate the outcomes of information operations is a major pain point. Manual assessments, which rely on surveys and interviews, require significant resources and are too slow for fast-moving missions. AI can track narratives over time to reveal changes in the information environment, providing a truly tangible measure of impact that extends beyond surface-level engagement data. A customizable dashboard that can be tailored to various stakeholder needs, incorporating features such as sentiment analysis, influence tracking, and visualization tools, would allow information operations teams to see the impact and adjust strategies in real time. It would also make it easier to connect campaign results to overarching strategic objectives and report back to leadership.

Ultimately, understanding whether an information campaign achieved its intended effect isn’t enough. Modern information operations need mechanisms for sustained engagement. If an initial message resonates and achieves its aim, the critical next step involves leveraging that success to build lasting influence, reinforce gains, and adapt future communications. Without this continuous follow-up and strategic progression, even the most effective efforts can simply dissipate into a vacuum.

Full view of the information environment

Information operations campaigns are too often deployed in mission-specific silos, narrowly focused on particular areas of responsibility and disconnected from each other and the Department of Defense’s broader strategy. This results in a lack of a common operational picture and cohesion in messaging between multiple fronts, creating a dangerous void that weakens the influence and can allow negative perceptions to take hold. Without an enterprise-wide view of the information landscape, it becomes exceedingly difficult to identify best practices or effectively coordinate initiatives. The result is costly duplication of effort, significant inefficiencies, missed opportunities, and severely compromised real-time situational awareness, which hinders rapid decision-making and increases the risk of unaddressed adversary influence.

This problem stems from an inability to share and integrate data across combatant commands and agencies. The challenges are multifaceted: disparate data standards persist, there’s an absence of a common data taxonomy or canonical model for integration, and labor-intensive manual data processing, such as hand-jamming reports from PDF documents and Excel spreadsheets, remains widespread. Compounding these technical and procedural hurdles is the inherent difficulty in sharing information due to varying sensitivity labels. The lack of integrated decision support tools and readily available onsite data teams further exacerbates these issues, creating dangerous blind spots.

The solution lies in deploying a data platform that standardizes metadata across systems and formats and automates the ingestion and processing of information from different sources. Replacing manual data entry with efficient, automated workflows would dramatically reduce errors and resource waste. Centralized dashboards, powered by AI, can visualize information, eliminating the need for traditional data crunching and making actionable insights accessible to all relevant stakeholders. Customizable to different mission requirements and readily scalable and adaptable to future demands and additional data sources, such a solution would offer real-time data feeds and updates, ensuring an up-to-date and relevant situational awareness.

Seamless data sharing and a common operational picture would significantly expedite planning and approval processes, which frequently delay the deployment of cognitive warfare campaigns. In fact, an interoperable, AI-enabled data system would transform the entire information operations lifecycle, including how commands monitor effectiveness, measure impact, and report results across all levels of leadership.

Outmaneuvering the rival

The stakes in the escalating global contest for cognitive influence are undeniable, and it’s clear the U.S. lags behind its competitors. Our rivals are already leveraging AI to mass-produce content, as evidenced by articles in Chinese media clearly showing chatbot-generated text, amplifying the messages that push their agenda. U.S. defense leaders must discard outdated methodologies and decisively embrace advanced capabilities that will deliver a common operational picture, accelerate execution of information operations, and align each campaign to strategic objectives.

While budget and talent are currently prioritized for kinetic missions, it is time to recognize that cognitive warfare is no longer a secondary concern. We cannot afford to be weak against adversaries who have mastered the art of information manipulation, pouring resources into advanced solutions and talent. The U.S. government has an opportunity to leverage technology as a powerful countermeasure to the sheer volume and velocity of adversarial activity. The first step is to find a partner who can deliver the necessary advanced capabilities and synchronize all elements of information operations, so our forces can anticipate, adapt, and secure a winning position against any opponent’s moves.

SOSi, a private defense and government services firm, has designed and delivered tailored information operations, strategic communications, public affairs, and open-source data monitoring and analysis solutions for U.S. military and federal government clients for over 25 years. The company provides linguistic and cultural expertise, intelligence analysis, and information operations planning and operations support to multiple U.S. Combatant Commands. SOSi’s AI-enabled data platform exoINSIGHT, powered by Exovera, delivers open-source collection and analysis to support complex defense, national security, and diplomatic missions, applying new forms of artificial intelligence classification to strategically map and analyze the global information environment.

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