The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, announced on April 28 that forecasting data collected during IARPA’s Aggregative Contingent Estimation—ACE—program by team Good Judgment is now available for use by the public and the research community via https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/gjp.
This data set includes millions of forecasts made by participants over the four years of the ACE forecasting competition and led to many noteworthy findings regarding the accuracy of human judgment about geopolitical events, including the finding that averaging the most historically accurate forecasters outperforms individual forecasters.
Good Judgment representatives said, “Good Judgment Inc., the commercial spinoff of the Good Judgment Project, welcomes the publication of the data from the IARPA/ACE forecasting competitions of 2011-2015, and hopes that the data will prove useful both to researchers seeking to build on the scientific accomplishments of ACE and to private and public sector organizations seeking to improve their capacity to put realistic odds on possible futures.”
With this release, IARPA hopes to fuel entrepreneurship, innovation, and scientific discovery. Scientists have already demonstrated interest by downloading the data 173 times since its release.